BU Research Blog

The Statistical Research Centre at Bournemouth University (BU) and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC) in Brazil have an MoU for research collaboration, knowledge exchange and student exchange. The MoU was a product of the connection established between BU’s world renowned experts in Singular Spectrum Analysis; Dr. Hossein Hassani and Dr. Mansi Ghodsi, and PUC’s world renowned researcher in utility forecasting Prof. Reinaldo Castro Souza. The team from BU which involves Dr. Hassani, Dr. Ghodsi and their PhD student, Emmanuel Sirimal Silva is involved in an ongoing Brazilian national project which has been outsourced to PUC under the care of Prof. Souza. The project aims at producing 5-year-monthly scenarios for artificial natural energy (water available for hydroelectricity generation) in Brazil where 70% of the electricity relies solely on hydro power plants which in turn are largely dependent on rainfall. Given the high volatility and uncertainty associated with the problem, it is not viable to generate a single forecast in this case. Instead the problem requires a more complex approach which is where BU’s expertise in the time series analysis and forecasting method of Singular Spectrum Analysis comes into play. The project relies on Singular Spectrum Analysis for decomposing Brazil’s artificial natural energy and extracting the signal and noise for each of the four Brazilian sub-systems. The team from BU and PUC have exchanged several visits including a research stay of Emmanuel in Rio de Janeiro, whereby there has been considerable knowledge exchange via workshops and research collaboration. Professors Souza and Cyrino were in Bournemouth for a three-day visit to discuss developments and complications which required BU’s input. There was also an informal request to further engage with the BU team on a second Brazilian national project which could benefit from BU’s expertise in Singular Spectrum Analysis. The Head of the Accounting, Finance and Economics Department at BU, Prof. Jens Hӧlscher hosted the guests to exchange views on expanding the existing connection between the two Universities further in the future.