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New Paper Published – Volchek, K., Liu, A., Song, H., Buhalis, D. (2018). Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies. Tourism Economics.

New Paper Published – Volchek, K., Liu, A., Song, H., Buhalis, D. (2018). Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies. Tourism Economics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618811558

Abstract

Tourist decision to visit attractions is a complex process influenced by multiple factors of individual context. This study investigates how the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting can be

improved at the micro level. The number of visits to five London museums is forecast and the predictive powers of Naïve I, seasonal Naïve, seasonal autoregressive moving average, seasonal autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables, SARMAX-mixed frequency data sampling and artificial neural network models are compared. The empirical findings extend understanding of different types of data and forecasting algorithms to the level of specific attractions. Introducing the Google Trends index on pure time-series models enhances the forecasts of the volume of arrivals to attractions. However, none of the applied models outperforms the others in all situations. Different models’ forecasting accuracy varies for short- and long-term demand predictions. The application of higher frequency search query data allows for the generation of weekly predictions, which are essential for attraction- and destination-level planning.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, attractions, forecasting, Google Trends, search engine, tourist demand

 

Introduction to Good Clinical Practice – 17th January 2019

NHS, Research Ethics, Research Integritiy, Training

Are you interested in running your own research project within the NHS? Good Clinical Practice, or ‘GCP’, is a requirement for those wishing to work on clinical research projects in a healthcare setting.

GCP is the international ethical, scientific and practical standard to which all clinical research is conducted. By undertaking GCP, you’re able to demonstrate the rights, safety and wellbeing of your research participants are protected, and that the data collected are reliable.

The next GCP full day session is scheduled for Thursday 17th January, at Bournemouth University, Lansdowne Campus (Executive Business Centre) – 8:45am – 4:30pm.

The day will comprise of the following sessions:

  • Introduction to research and the GCP standards;
  • Preparing to deliver your study;
  • Identifying and recruiting participants – eligibility and informed consent;
  • Data collection and ongoing study delivery;
  • Safety reporting;
  • Study closure.

If you’re interested in booking a place, please contact Research Ethics.

Remember that support is on offer at BU if you are thinking of introducing your research ideas into the NHS – email the Research Ethics mailbox, and take a look at the Clinical Governance blog.

Research Professional – all you need to know

Funding opportunities

Every BU academic has a Research Professional account which delivers weekly emails detailing funding opportunities in their broad subject area. To really make the most of your Research Professional account, you should tailor it further by establishing additional alerts based on your specific area of expertise. The Funding Development Team Officers can assist you with this, if required.

Research Professional have created several guides to help introduce users to ResearchProfessional. These can be downloaded here.

Quick Start Guide: Explains to users their first steps with the website, from creating an account to searching for content and setting up email alerts, all in the space of a single page.

User Guide: More detailed information covering all the key aspects of using ResearchProfessional.

Administrator Guide: A detailed description of the administrator functionality.

In addition to the above, there are a set of 2-3 minute videos online, designed to take a user through all the key features of ResearchProfessional. To access the videos, please use the following link: http://www.youtube.com/researchprofessional

Research Professional are running a series of online training broadcasts aimed at introducing users to the basics of creating and configuring their accounts on ResearchProfessional. They are holding monthly sessions, covering everything you need to get started with ResearchProfessional. The broadcast sessions will run for no more than 60 minutes, with the opportunity to ask questions via text chat. Each session will cover:

  • Self registration and logging in
  • Building searches
  • Setting personalised alerts
  • Saving and bookmarking items
  • Subscribing to news alerts
  • Configuring your personal profile

Each session will run between 10.00am and 11.00am (UK) on the fourth Tuesday of each month. You can register here for your preferred date:

22nd January 2019

26th February 2019

26th March 2019

23rd April 2019

21st May 2019

25th Jun 2019

23rd July 2019

27th August 2019

These are free and comprehensive training sessions and so this is a good opportunity to get to grips with how Research Professional can work for you.

Have you noticed the pink box on the BU Research Blog homepage?

By clicking on this box, on the left of the Research Blog home page just under the text ‘Funding Opportunities‘, you access a Research Professional real-time search of the calls announced by the Major UK Funders. Use this feature to stay up to date with funding calls. Please note that you will have to be on campus or connecting to your desktop via our VPN to fully access this service.

The perils of academic travel

Traveling long distances for work is key to many academic jobs.  However, traveling during the Festive Season has its challenges.  Getting your tickets in time from the university-appointed travel agency is one of them.  Getting tickets to go to Heathrow took me a week, due to range of minor human errors and my family forbidding me to work on Christmas Day and Boxing.  Having received the bus tickets on the day of travel, the coach to Heathrow broke down half way, raising my anxiety level.

In Nepal, travel issues are usually traffic issues. In the dry season Kathmandu is dusty and polluted (one of my colleagues said it is the fifth most polluted city in terms of air quality in the world). Outside Kathmandu on the Highway to India the scary bits are the narrow winding roads with little opportunity to overtake slow moving lorries going up the mountains, but people still do.  The pictures show the equivalent of the M1 or M6 in the UK.  Not quite what one would expect a Highway to look like.  And it really does not that we recently submitted a paper about road traffic injuries in Nepal.  Sometimes know less is better!

First publication of 2019

NHS, Publishing, writing

Having had the pleasure of announcing the last BU publication yesterday, today we received an email that our paper ‘Design errors in vital sign charts used in consultant-led maternity units in the United Kingdom’ has been accepted by the International Journal of Obstetric Anesthesia.  This paper is led by FHSS Visiting Faculty Gary Smith and Richard Isaac and has as co-authors Vanora Hundley, Lisa Gale-Andrews and Edwin van Teijlingen as well as two further BU Visiting Professors: Mike Wee and Debra Bick.

Final publication of 2018

PG research, Publishing, student research, writing

Congratulations to Orlanda Harvey on the publication of her paper ‘Shades of Grey’: The Ethics of Social Work Practice in Relation to Un-prescribed Anabolic Androgenic Steroid Use. Orlanda Harvey is a PhD student in the Faculty of Health and Social Sciences with a research interest in image and performance enhancing drug (IPED) use.  Her paper will be published in Practice: Social Work in Action.  

This paper highlights ethical dilemmas that social workers face when assessing risk in relation to those using substances. It explores how legislation and societal factors can impact not just on people’s choices and decisions but also on their ‘vulnerability’ and access to services. Vulnerability, a contested term, is linked, in this paper, to assessment of risk. There are ethical issues that arise when assessing risk with people who use Anabolic Androgenic Steroids (AAS) from both service user and professional perspectives. These ethical issues concern a person’s right to choose whilst making potentially harmful decisions. The paper argues that using substances such as AAS in and of itself does not suffice to make a person vulnerable but this does not mean that people using AAS are not in need of support. It suggests that there may be some groups of people who are more at risk to starting AAS use and that social workers should be aware of these. It also recommends the need for further qualitative research to understand the reasons for starting use and support to help people stop using AAS.

Well done!

Prof. Edwin van Teijlingen

CMMPH

‘4*’ paper to end the year…

Research assessment

Aligning with BU’s 2025 Medical Science strategy and the proposed department of Medical Sciences, research findings to be published in Nature Communications describe a potential new target for the control of kidney failure in diabetics. BU (co-lead authorship), in collaboration with clinicians and scientists at the universities of Bristol, Edinburgh, Cambridge, Hong Kong, Toronto, Northwestern (Chicago), Otago in New Zealand, MRC Harwell and the pathology department in Glasgow (phew!), we have identified a metabolic signature in the kidney’s filtration cells (known as podocytes) that links insulin resistance to kidney failure. This is important because it details a mechanism which might be ‘tweaked’ in patients suffering from diabetic nephropathy – one of the most common causes of kidney failure in the world.

Paul S. Hartley.

CHAIN – Contact, Help, Advice and Information Network

Knowledge Exchange, NHS

CHAIN is an online mutual support network for people working in health and social care. It gives people a simple and informal way of contacting each other to exchange ideas and share knowledge.

Members use CHAIN in all sorts of ways, from highly proactive networking to more passive ‘horizon-scanning’.
CHAIN also provides a simple mechanism for ideas which emerge in one context to be shared with fellow-members across boundaries of organisations, professions, and territories which makes the network unique.

Joining is free, and open to anyone working in these areas. You can see recent examples of feedback here, as well as a snapshot report here, of the network’s reach.

Follow CHAIN updates on Twitter; @CHAIN_Network ; Find them on Facebook; Connect with CHAIN on LinkedIn.

Recruiting Researcher for AHRC funded project

Awarded & submitted bids

The Law Department is seeking to recruit an experienced and enthusiastic researcher to work on an AHRC funded project designed to create Mass Grave Protection Guidelines.

The project will address the question of how best to protect Mass Graves to secure truth and justice for survivors. The project will do this by bringing together experts and stakeholders from the forensic sciences, criminal investigations, legal profession, NGOs, international organisations, security sector and survivor groups. Through a process of consultations and round-table discussions with these experts, Mass Grave Protection Guidelines will be developed and, once finalised, translated and disseminated to stakeholders.

Ideal candidates should demonstrate excellent legal research, organisational and communication skills. Prior knowledge of research project management is desirable.

This post is available part-time and fixed term basis for 21 months. The Project foresees the following working pattern throughout the 21-month period:

  • Months 0-6 at 0.4 FTE
  • Months 07-16 at 0.2 FTE
  • Months 17-21 at 0.4 FTE

For further information and discussion, please contact Dr. Melanie Klinkner, Project Principal Investigator.

NHS research cost attribution and funding update – support on offer at BU

Guidance, NHS

You may have seen an earlier post regarding recent developments, surrounding changes to the way that NHS research costs will be attributed and funded.

Acord specialists working within Local Clinical Research Networks (LCRN) are available to assist researchers in completing the SoECAT.
However, there is also further guidance and support on offer at BU. Email Research Ethics with any queries you may have, as well as requests for any guidance surrounding NHS research and associated procedures.

From one NIHR Fellowship to another!

Awarded & submitted bids, NHS

From one NIHR Fellowship to another!

This week I complete my 3-year, 100% FTE NIHR Career Development Fellowship. After the Christmas holiday I then start on a new NIHR Clinical Trials Fellowship.

If you’re not familiar with NIHR fellowships you can find out more here: https://www.nihr.ac.uk/our-research-community/NIHR-academy/nihr-training-programmes/fellowship-programme.htm. The NIHR have re-packaged their fellowship programme and so the Career Development Fellowship is no longer available, as it has been superseded with an Advanced Fellowship.

The Career Development Fellowship has been a career-changing experience. It not only provides you with funding to lead a multidisciplinary team to conduct a research project of importance, but the opportunity to undertake a training and development programme. This has enabled me to further develop my skills and expertise in clinical trial research methods so that I can undertake larger, more complex studies, and therefore go on to produce much higher quality work with greater impact.

The new fellowship that I will start in January 2019 is a Clinical Trials Fellowship. These are designed to provide further advanced research methods training in clinical trials. They provide hands-on experience with several trials at different phases of progression and are to be based in a clinical trials unit. For me, I will be based at PRIMENT, the Clinical Trials Unit at UCL with expertise in trials conducted in primary care and to do with mental health, including my area of dementia. This will help consolidate the experience I have gained so far and training from completing an MSc in Clinical Trials, with further hands-on experience in dementia trials at a leading trials unit.

I can highly recommend NIHR fellowships and happy to discuss them with colleagues interested in applying for one.

Dr Samuel Nyman

Changes to the way that NHS research costs will be attributed and funded

Guidance

We have been informed by MRC of changes to the way that NHS research costs will be attributed and funded. You may already be aware but the Department of Health and NIHR have introduced a new attribution tool called the Schedule of Events Attribution Tool (SoECAT) which will now be mandatory for any researcher wishing to access resources within the NHS for their study. The Pilot stage for the project began on 1st October 2018 and there are three main changes;

1.  Any researcher applying to a funding call that opened from 1st October will be required to submit a SoECAT with their proposal or with their second stage proposal if applying to a 2-stage application process.

2.  All current research projects accessing resources within the NHS will be asked to migrate onto the new SoECAT system.

3.  A ‘high threshold’ is being introduced where the portion of NHS costs attributed to Excess Treatment Costs (ETC) will in future be reassessed for value to the NHS before these ETC are funded. This threshold is set at more than 1M per study or 20,000 per patient.

There are Acord specialists working within Local Clinical Research Networks (LCRN) who are available to assist researchers in completing the SoECAT. It is anticipated that these Acord specialists will be in high demand and while DH is training more Acord specialists they advise that researchers wishing to access this resource do so early during preparation of their proposals.

During this Pilot stage MRC are working with DH and NIHR to devise appropriate ways of working for MRC applicants and will be able to update their Guidance for Applicants in early 2019.

Next steps for researchers undertaking/planning to undertake clinical studies;

1.  Contact your Acord specialist within your LCRN for more information and to discuss completion of the SoECAT.

2.  While they are updating MRC guidance more information can be found here on the NIHR web-site.

If you have any questions, please contact your LCRN Acord specialist.

 

RKEO alternative 12 days ‘to’ Christmas – 11 REFs a piping

On the eleventh day to Christmas, my RKEO friend gave to me, 11 REFs a piping.

The Research Excellence Framework (REF) is the exercise for assessing the volume and quality of research in UK HEIs. As with its predecessor (the RAE), the results of the REF are used by HEFCE to determine the annual quality-related research (QR) grant distributed from HEFCE to HEIs in England.

We have a dedicated REF2021 site on the blog, which will bring you all the latest news. You can also find here development sessions available for each of the UoAs that BU intends to submit to. Book your place now!

Successful Away Day for the Centre for Midwifery, Maternal and Perinatal Health

Fusion, HSS Our 9 Research Entities, international, NHS

CMMPH held its annual away day on the 12th December and was led by the Centre leads, Professors Edwin van Teijlingen and Susan Way. It is an opportunity for BU staff, PGR students and Visiting Faculty to come together and share their research development and impact over the previous year. Time is also given to thinking ahead to ensure the Centre is meeting its aims of promoting the health and wellbeing of women, babies and their families by enhancing practice through education, research and scholarship.

The morning started with an update about EDGE, an NHS IT platform that provides a governance framework for tracking NHS research studies. Doctoral students whose studies require NHS ethics approval will have their research tracked through this system. Other discussions included an update on REF and BU2025, developing a publications strategy and match-funded PhD studentships.

  

Luisa Cescutti-Butler                            Malika Felton

Several PGR students presented their work to date, ranging from rising caesarean section rates in hospitals in Nepal (Sulochana Dhakal working towards Probationary Review); acute and chronic effects of slow and deep breathing upon women who have pregnancy-induced hypertension (Malika Felton working towards Major Review); updating the understanding perineal practice at the time of birth by midwives (Sara Stride working towards Probationary Review) and women’s experiences of caring for their late preterm babies (Dr Luisa Cescutti-Butler recently awarded doctorate). The presentations were all excellent and produced a lot of questions and discussion. Well done to all those who presented.

 

Sulochana Dhakal                                                 Sara Stride

The afternoon was used as an opportunity to think ahead about future collaborative research, how this fits in with the Centre aims and objectives as well as meeting the university’s ambitions to be a world class organisation.

The day was really enjoyable with a lot of positive feedback.

 

Edwin and Sue

RKEO alternative 12 days ‘to’ Christmas – 10 funders funding

On the tenth day to Christmas, my RKEO friend gave to me, 10 funders funding.

I’m going to be lazy here and list seven that are all research councils, although you may see this as one as they all come under the banner of UKRI (with Innovate UK and Research England thrown in for good measure).

There are seven research councils who receive funding from the Government’s science budget. These are AHRC, BBSRC, EPSRC, ESRC, MRC, NERC and STFC. The research councils fund high quality research that has an impact on the growth, prosperity and wellbeing of the UK. Some projects may include international partners. Their focus tends to be on more theoretical rather than applied research. In addition to research project funding, money may also be available to hold seminar series and support training and career development of researchers.

You can find links to all seven, plus their funding opportunities, strategy, delivery plan, funding guidance, impact reports, and much more in the one place here.

You’re getting more than you bargained for here (takes the tally to 11) with the many charities that BU submits funding applications to. The four main ones are British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society. Click here for more information on all of these.

And going back to the third day of Christmas, find out all you need to know about Horizon 2020 here.European Union - Horizon 2020

 

UPDATED: HE Policy update for the w/e 21st December 2018

Student Engagement

Grade Inflation

New report on Grade inflation by the Office for Students

The report has already been criticised for the obvious reason – it describes as “unexplained” all improvements in student degree outcomes that are not linked to prior attainment or student background.  The UUK/QAA report last month said improvement was “unexplained” if it wasn’t attributable (according to their methodology) by improvements in SSR, expenditure as well as UCAS scores.  And they are running a consultation.

The language used by the OfS is also reflective of the mood music at the moment – it’s “spiralling” grade inflation.  Nothing to do with hard work improving outcomes, particularly for those from backgrounds that haven’t always had straightforward access or a straightforward road to success university. (more…)